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IT'S BEEN A WHILE....

...Since we visited Turnberry at Open Championship time, and looking at the club’s three past champions (Tom Watson, Greg Norman and Nick Price), it makes one think that A) The R & A has stayed away too long, and B) Was it really necessary to make wholesale changes to a golf course which has clearly excelled at identifying the best players in a world-class championship field?

Given that Price’s victory came fully 15 years ago, past performance plays less of a role here than it might in handicapping an event played at more frequently visited Open stops – but for American players less familiar with the subtleties (not to mention the more straightforward demands) of links golf, past performance in the Open itself may be a somewhat valid predictor. Then again, after Tiger Woods (who, when on form, is clearly capable of transcending “subtleties” – and most anything else), how many potentially links-challenged Americans even figure to factor into the mix?

Anyway, a look at the prospects (and realistic odds) for the world’s top 15 players...

Tiger Woods (8-1) – His game may still bear signs of rust, his 2009 dominance has been more of the mortal variety, and being listed at 2-1 (Ladbrokes) may accurately reflect the betting handle, but it’s certainly not a reflection on his realistic chances of winning. Of course, none of that means he’s not still the favorite...

Phil Mickelson ( - ) – Sadly unable to compete due to multiple family illnesses.

Paul Casey (24-1)– The world number three is on solid form, with wins in America (the Houston Open) and Europe (the prestigious BMW PGA) since April. But at age 31, he’s only once bettered 20th in seven previous Open starts – the lone positive of which might be that this breakthrough came last year at Birkdale, where he came back from an opening 78 to tie for 7th.

Kenny Perry (25-1)– Perry’s late-40s resurgence is fast reaching unequaled ground in PGA Tour history, with two more wins already added to 2009’s ledger, plus a heartbreaking playoff loss at Augusta. He’s only played in five Open Championships, missing the cut in 1991 and 2006. Yet any sense that he’ll be a fish out of water on the linksland is not entirely supported by the record, as his three other appearances saw him tie for 8th, 16th and 11th from 2003-05.

Sergio Garcia (15-1)– With six top 10s in his last eight Open starts, Garcia certainly seems capable of claiming the Claret Jug – unless his putting goes wrong, or he decides he doesn’t like the golf course, or the golf gods conspire against him, or he starts thinking that they’re conspiring against him, or...

Steve Stricker (17-1)– Another 40+ enjoying a career resurgence with two wins and five top 5s in America thus far in 2009. Had an entirely mediocre Open Championship record prior to finishing T8 and T7 in 2007 & ’08. Big problem: The last player to win a PGA Tour event on the Sunday before the Open, then claimed the Jug seven days hence, was Lee Trevino - in 1971.

Geoff Ogilvy (17-1)– It’s been an up-and-down year in America for Ogilvy, though the ups have included victories at the Mercedes-Benz and the WGC Match Play. For a world-class player whose skills and mindset would seem well-suited to links golf, he has a disappointing career record at the Open, missing four of six cuts and only once cracking the top 10 (T5 in 2005).

Henrik Stenson (17-1)– Another world-class player with a mediocre Open record, never bettering 34th before tying for 3rd last year at Royal Birkdale. Winless in Europe thus far in ’09, but claimed the prestigious Players Championship in America, so his form remains pretty solid.

Jim Furyk (16-1)– With four top 10s in his last five American starts, the 2003 U.S. Open champion seems in a good grove arriving at Turnberry. Interestingly, though not generally thought of as a player whose game might adapt well to the U.K., his Open record actually includes four top-5 finishes dating back to 1997. An interesting darkhorse.

Vijay Singh (35-1) – After a stronger run in May, has slowed a bit of late on the American circuit. Has played in 20 Open Championships and has only thrice finished among the top 10, his peak being a T2 in 2003 at Royal St. George’s. His time has probably passed to win here. Probably.

Martin Kaymer (20-1)– Which is more likely, Steve Stricker winning at the John Deere, then winning here, or Martin Kaymer winning the E Tour’s last two stops, then claiming the Open for the hat trick? Certainly one of the game’s brightest young stars, and probably talented and mature enough to seriously contend right now – but perhaps he peaked a week or two early?

Camilo Villegas (27-1) – After a hot start, hasn’t logged a U.S. top 10 since March – though his play has been far more pedestrian than truly poor. Tied for 39th last year in his Open debut, so his links slate is nearly a blank one. Something of a wildcard.

Sean O’Hair (23-1)– A bit up-and-down thus far in ’09 (including a win, a 2nd and two MCs during a five-event stretch from late March through early May) but ties for 15th and 14th at the 2005 and ’06 Opens suggests he can play well here.

Padraig Harrington (22-1) – The two-time defending champion surely must rate among the favorites despite playing through a slump that’s seen him miss four of his last five cuts in America......mustn’t he?

Anthony Kim (25-1)– The first half of 2009 was a bit of a letdown for one of the game’s rising young stars, but a recent upturn (including 3rd at the AT&T National) might be hinting at something. Tied for 7th in his Open debut last year, so perhaps links golf suits him...

Posted on Monday, July 13, 2009 at 09:23PM by Registered CommenterDaniel | Comments9 Comments | References3 References

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